• Matthew Spurr

ValMo Trend Following Series - Mar 2021

Updated: Mar 17

For those of you who didn't see the introductory blog to this series, you can find it here.

Spread Betting UK Shares Experiment

In this blog (above) I take you through how I intend to beat the passive 'buy and hold' approach to investing by trading a low maintenance spread betting system for buying shares - in effect starting a Spread ISA, as Robbie 'Naked Trader' Burns coined it in his books.

ValMo refers to 'Value/Momentum' stocks. Trend following means that we're looking to capture long term bullish trends on UK stocks. Spread betting means (to UK peeps) that we're doing this all tax-free (like an extension to your ISA).

I intend to share every single trade on this website for you guys to follow along, or even copy. ("Always read the label")

The following post highlights the details of the first trades that we've placed, and anything we came up against.

To stay abreast of new positions and track record to date please visit: ValMo Trades Page.

March 2021 Trades

So our Value/Momentum Stockopedia screener has shortlisted the following UK stocks for us to trade.

As you can see from the chart, this initial selection of companies if traded (in equal measure) over the last 12 months would have returned +63.74% profit vs. +35.18% from the benchmark FTSE All Share Index over the same period.

So that should give us some confidence in the edge that this system could provide us with. (Past performance does not guarantee future returns, it is just an indicative idea based on real historical data, may contain nuts).

The First Trades!

Jupiter Fund Management

Phoenix Group

Pz Cussons

Serica Energy

Stock Spirits

To stay abreast of new positions and track record to date please visit: ValMo Trades Page.

Jupiter Fund Management - BUY £2.27pp @ 275.89

Jupiter Fund Management plc is a fund manager. The principal activity of the Company is to act as a holding company for a group of investment management companies. The Company focuses primarily on managing equity investments on behalf of retail, institutional and private client investors across a range of products, including the United Kingdom and offshore mutual funds, segregated mandates and investment trusts. The Company manages various investment trusts, unit trusts and overseas funds. It offers a range of products and services through various distribution channels. Its online services enable advisors and individuals to invest in selected funds from different providers, and to access consolidated reporting and analytics tools. Its mutual fund clients include individual investors, requiring investment products to meet their savings and retirement needs. It access its clients through distribution partners, such as financial advisors and wealth managers.

Ex-Dividend Date

Apr 15, 2021

NB: You should always know when this is as it's the day that dividends get paid. You can expect to see the share price dip, but don't be alarmed, it's not for any scary fundamental reason, it's to account for the divident payouts and to avoid people trying to just quickly cash in on dividend payments and then get out. Being aware of your portfolio ex-dividend dates, could save you from making a costly mistake.

Phoenix Group - BUY £1.00pp @ 739.9

Phoenix Group Holdings plc is a United Kingdom-based company that specializes in the acquisition and management of closed life insurance and pension funds. The Company operates through three business segments: UK Heritage, UK Open and Europe. The UK Heritage segment provides a range of life and pensions products. Assets under administration in its open business are held in three product lines: Workplace, Retail pensions and Wrap. It also includes capital-light products. UK Open business relates to its pension and long-term savings products sold under the Standard Life brand. The European segment distributes unit linked life assurance products which have no material guarantees. Its SunLife brand provides customers with a range of specialist products, including life cover, equity release and funeral plans. Its subsidiaries include Phoenix Life Limited, Phoenix Life Assurance Limited, ReAssure Group plc and Abbey Life Assurance Company Limited.

Ex-Dividend Date

Apr 1, 2021

Pz Cussons - BUY £1.90pp @ 263.16

PZ Cussons Plc is a United Kingdom-based consumer products company. The principal activities of the Company are manufacturing and distribution of soaps, detergents, toiletries, beauty products, pharmaceuticals, electrical goods, edible oils, fats and spreads, and nutritional products. The Company's segments include Africa, Asia and Europe. The Africa and Asia segments are engaged in the sale of personal care, home care and food, and nutrition products. The Africa segment is engaged in the sale of personal care, home care, food and nutrition, and electrical products. The Company's personal care brands include Carex, Charles Worthington, Cussons Baby, Fudge, Fudge Urban, Imperial Leather, Premier, Mum & Me, Original Source, Sanctuary Spa, St. Tropez and Robb. The Company's home care brands include Zip, Radiant and Morning Fresh. The Company's food and nutrition brands include Five: AM, Mamador and Rafferty's Garden. The Company's electrical brand is Haier Thermocool.

Ex-Dividend Date

Feb 11, 2021

Serica Energy - BUY £4.14pp @ 122.23

Serica Energy plc is a United Kingdom-based oil and gas company. The Company has exploration and development activities based in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Namibia and Morocco, and an economic interest in an oilfield offshore Norway. The Company's segments include UK, Ireland and Africa. It holds licenses in the Central North Sea and the East Irish Sea, which includes the Columbus Field. It holds Frontier Exploration Licenses for Muckish, Aghla and Derryveagh, and Liffey and Boyne Prospects. The Company also holds interest in Blocks 113/26b and 113/27c, including the Doyle prospect. It holds interest in Block 113/22a, which is operated by Zennor North Sea Limited. The Company has interest in a Petroleum Agreement covering Blocks 2512A, 2513A, 2513B and 2612A in the Luderitz Basin, offshore Namibia in partnership with other companies. The Company has working interest in the Sidi Moussa license. The Company has an economic interest in the potential development of the Vette field.

Ex-Dividend Date

Jun 25, 2020

Stock Spirits - BUY £1.80pp @ 278.97

Stock Spirits Group PLC is a United Kingdom-based spirits company. The Company, together with its subsidiaries, is involved in the production and distribution of branded spirits in Central and Eastern Europe. It operates through five segments: Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, Other Operational and Corporate. The Other Operational segment consists of the results of operations of the Slovakian, International and Baltic Distillery entities. It has more than 40 brands and exports its products to more than 40 countries worldwide. It offers spirits, including vodka, vodka-based flavoured liqueurs, rum, brandy, bitters and limoncello. Its brands include Zoladkowa de Luxe, Lubelska, Zoladkowa Gorzka, Fernet Stock, Bozkov, Amundsen, Keglevich, Limonce, Keglevich, Golden, Stock 84, Fernet Stock Citrus, Hammerhead and Stock Original.

Ex-Dividend Date

Jan 28, 2021

Quilter PLC - BUY £4.07pp @ 155.44

Quilter PLC, formerly Old Mutual Wealth Management Ltd, is engaged in wealth management business. The Company offers financial advice; investment platforms; multi-asset investment solutions and discretionary fund management offerings. Its segment includes Wealth Platforms and Advice and Wealth Management. Wealth Platforms includes its Old Mutual Wealth United Kingdom Platform; Old Mutual International, including AAM Advisory in Singapore; and the Old Mutual Wealth Heritage life assurance business. Advice and Wealth Management includes the financial planning network, Intrinsic; Old Mutual Wealth Private Client Advisers; discretionary fund management business, Quilter Cheviot; and the Multi-asset investment solutions business.

Ex-Dividend Date

Apr 8, 2021

The Ones We Couldn't Open

Mondi PLC's Margin requirement was too high for us to enter this trade according to our trade plan, so we just left that one, see screenshot below.

We're looking to only use 25% of our account equity across all of our positions.

We're looking to take 10 positions.

So with a starting account size of £5,000 we can afford to risk £1,250 of our equity across all 10 positions.

So therefore: £125 margin per position when opening (2.5% of account equity).

With Mondi PLC (see screenshot above) the minimum position size we could take was £371.60. In other words, almost 3-times our allowance. If you're starting with £15,000 equity then this stock is in play for you, at the minimum stake allowed! But on this occasion, we just had to bid it farewell at the gates to our portfolio.

NB: There is some wiggle room here normally, if the margin requirement is within 20% of our ideal target then we can take the trade, but that's the absolute limit!

TBC Bank - The market was only available on IG to people looking to close positions, but not open new ones. So again, we couldn't enter this trade.

Nb Global Monthly Income Fund - This chart was just never loading for me, so I'm assuming for the time being it is unavailable on IG. I'll check back every now and then.

Now our system requires us to simply sit and wait until the last trading day of the month, and if the price is above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average we'll hold our trade, and if it closes below at the end of the month (EOM) then we'll close it and open a new position if our screener gives us an option.

To stay abreast of new positions and track record to date please visit: ValMo Trades Page.

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